Indian Wells 2026

Earlier this month, my family and I traveled to the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells for the third consecutive year. As always, the level of tennis was incredible, but this year stood out because I had the chance to watch both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz compete on the same day. Seeing two of the best players in the world back-to-back gave me a unique perspective on how differently elite players approach matches. For this blog, I decided to switch things up and analyze both matches I watched that day, breaking down what I observed and the key takeaways from each performance.

Djokovic vs Majchrzak

What I saw from Novak in the first set against Majchrzak was in some of the worst tennis that I’ve seen him play, possibly ever, especially that second game of the first set. Novak ended up losing this first set 6-4, but he was down two breaks 4-1. And that first stage of the first set was very weird tennis from Novak.

Similar to some of the matches that we’ve seen over the last two years or so at events outside the Grand Slams. Now, Novak Djokovic started fighting in that first set. He broke back, and the first set got more interesting. Eventually, he lost it 6-4.

Still, he played himself into the match in that first set, which is a great lesson for everyone to fight even though you’re down by a lot in a set, because while you might not be able to win this set, you can certainly play yourself into the match, which can have a very positive effect on the following set.

And Novak Djokovic started playing way better in the second set, at 6-1, and played a solid third set, winning 6-2. I will note, though, that at the beginning of the third set, Novak Djokovic was gassed again. He was going down to his knees. So stamina remains a big question mark for Novak, even though he beat Jannik Sinner in five sets at the Australian Open in a miraculous fashion.

Why Djokovic Struggles at Indian Wells

But back to Novak’s struggles at Indian Wells: he has won this tournament five times, and the last time he won it was in 2016, but the losses that followed are inexplicable, in my opinion. And he lost to Kyrgios in 2017, which, at the time, you could understand, given that Kyrgios was an incredible player.

Still, in 2018, Djokovic lost to Taro Daniel, and in 2019, he lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber both early in the tournament. Then he didn’t play for a long time. In 2024, he lost to Luca Nardi in the third round, and last year he lost to Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round. So, how do you explain Novak's performances?

I always listen to Novak and try to gather information about what’s going on in his head. And Novak said yesterday that he has had a difficult time, especially in the last 10 years, with the conditions at Indian Wells because it’s windy and the wind isn't predictable. It is swirly, and I assume that, as a perfectionist, Novak likes to be in control, and that uncontrollable aspect of the swirly wind breaks his rhythm. It breaks his focus, and he’s delivered some shocking performances at Indian Wells relative to his accomplishments there, which makes this quite interesting.

On top of that, if you were to design a player who would perform well in the wind, you would design Novak Djokovic because he’s the master improviser. He’s able to bend his body in ways that we haven’t seen before on the tennis court. He’s extremely flexible. And on top of that, Novak Djokovic has incredible ball control and good footwork. Yet, in my opinion, he does not like playing in the wind.

Alcaraz’s Masterclass

Now, let’s contrast that to another player who is also, in my opinion, at the GOAT level, who simply does not care what the conditions are. To me, he might be the greatest player ever in his mental approach to tennis. Carlos Alcaraz always seems positive on the court. It doesn’t matter where he’s playing. Maybe except for playing indoors in Paris, Carlos Alcaraz always seems to have fun out there.

And the fact that it’s windy, it doesn’t break Carlos’ focus. He delivers his best tennis. Of course, just like Novak, Carlos Alcaraz has all the attributes to play well in the wind. Usually, where you pay a price in the wind is if you’re a flat ball striker. If you have a very high toss on your serve, if you have poor footwork, you’re not going to be a good wind player.

So both Djokovic and Alcaraz, as I said, have all the capabilities to perform really well in the wind. But again, if we approach this from a mental standpoint, Carlos Alcaraz right now is the best player on the planet, and he’s for sure the best wind player.

The way he played against Dimitrov, who, in my opinion, played a good match. He had absolutely no chance against Alcaraz, who was firing on all cylinders, serving exceptionally well. That new service motion is working well.

Carlos, despite this coaching change at the end of last year, seems to be getting stronger, not worse. Some people are speculating that Carlos Alcaraz needs to be controlled and coached because he’s too wild. I think it’s quite the opposite.

I think Carlos, as insane as this sounds, is going to keep getting better. And he has made 12 out of the last 13 finals that he’s played. Again, the exception is the Paris Masters Indoors.

Final Thoughts

But again, what I find so interesting with the discrepancy between Djokovic at Indian Wells and Carlos Alcaraz at Indian Wells, despite Djokovic having had incredible success at this tournament, winning it five times, he’s had some struggles over the last 10 years. And in my opinion, one of the main factors is the wind. You could also argue that, after playing Australia, Novak takes a long break, and he’s a little bit rusty. You can certainly make that argument as well.

But in a lot of these poor performances, Novak had won the first match he played and then lost. This was true against Nardi, Kohlschreiber, and Daniel, and, of course, against Kyrgios as well. So I do think that at the end of the day, it comes down to the conditions, as Novak has said personally.

At the same time, Carlos Alcaraz does not care about the conditions. He always seems to have fun out there. I know he lost to Daniil Medvedev at Indian Wells and to Sebi Korda at the Miami Open. However, next month we get to the clay-court season, and we know Carlitos is the best clay-court player in the world. So, I think Carlos will go on another rampage that’s going to last for a very long time.